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Neville Francis



A 2001 graduate of the University of California, San Diego, Neville Francis has interests in macroeconomics with an emphasis on models assessing the impacts of technology shocks.

Working Papers and Projects in Process

Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models” [NBER Publication] with Michael T. Owyang and Daniel F. Soques


State-dependent Adjustment Cost and Labor Dynamics in Recessions: Evidence using FGTS Policy in Brazil” (SSRN working paper)
with Calebe Figueiredo

“The Identification of Dominant Macroeconomic Drivers: Coping with Confounding Shocks”
with Alistair Dieppe and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon ECB WP 2534

The Low Frequency Impact of Daily Monetary Policy Shocks” (SSRN working paper)
with Eric Ghysels and Michael Owyang

Selected Publications

“Signing-out Confounding Shocks in Variance-Maximizing Identification Methods” [Appendix] Prepared for the AEA Papers & Proceedings
with Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

“Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, July 2005, 23(3), pp. 305-13
with Michael Owyang

“Is the Technology Real Business Cycle Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisited”
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2005, volume 52, issue 8, pages 1379-1399
with Valerie Ramey

Measures of Hours Per Capita and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate
Journal of Money Credit and Bankingm, September 2009, Volume 41, Issue 6, pp 1071-1097
with Valerie Ramey

Information Consistent Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity”
Economic Letters, April 2011, Issue 1, pp 91-94
with Hamilton Fout

“Imperfect Transmissions of Technology Shocks and the Business Cycle Consequences”
Macroeconomic Dynamics, March 2014, Volume 18, pp 418 – 437
with Hamilton Fout

A Flexible Finite-horizon Alternative Identification of Technology Shocks
Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2014, 96(4): 638–647
with Michael T. Owyang, Jennifer Roush and Ricardo DiCecio

An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32, pp. 1261-1276, November/December 2017
with Michael T. Owyang, and Özge Savascin

Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery After Recessions
Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 50, No. 4, pp. 675-704, June 2018
with Laura E. Jackson, and Michael T. Owyang

Business Cycles Across Space and Time” with Michael T. Owyang and Daniel Soques
forthcoming Journal of Money Credit and Banking

How Has Empirical Monetary Policy analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?” with Laura E. Jackson, and Michael T. Owyang
Economic Modelling, January 2020, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 309-321

Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies“, with Alistair Dieppe, and Gene Kindberg-Hanlon,
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 131, 2021.